There are two places to turn to answer this question. First is the consensus of what experts are saying. If you look at what experts are projecting for home prices in 2023, they’re forecasting home price appreciation around 2%. While it’s true some are calling for depreciation, most are calling for appreciation in home values over the next year.
The second spot to turn to for information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are also calling for home price appreciation for the next several years (see graph below):

Like mentioned above, Ratiu sees mortgage rates rising over the next several months. Another expert agrees. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“While mortgage rates are expected to continue to drift higher over the coming months, much of the rapid increase in rates is likely behind us.” 
The instability in the world and higher inflation are driving this volatile market, resulting in higher borrowing rates for those looking to buy homes.
Bottom LineIf you’re thinking about buying a home, asking yourself about home prices and mortgage rates will help you make a powerful and confident decision. Experts see both prices and rates rising in the future. The alternative is to rent, but rents are also increasing. That may mean buying a home makes more sense than renting.

Expert Quotes for Fall Homebuyers

A recent article from realtor.com:
​“This fall, a more moderate pace of home selling, more listings to choose from, and softening price growth will provide some breathing room for buyers searching for a home during what is typically the best time to buy a home.”

Michael Lane, VP and General Manager, ShowingTime:
“Buyers will continue to see less competition for homes and have more time to tour homes they like and consider their options.” 

Expert Quotes for Fall Sellers

​Selma Hepp, Interim Lead of the Office of the Chief Economist, CoreLogic:
“. . . record equity continues to provide fuel for housing demand, particularly if households are relocating to more affordable areas.”

​Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com: 
“For homeowners deciding whether to make a move this year,remember that listing prices – while lower than a few months ago – remain higher than in prior years, so you’re still likely to find opportunities to cash-in on record-high levels of equity, particularly if you’ve owned your home for a longer period of time.”
Bottom LineMortgage rates, home prices, and the supply of homes for sale are top of mind for buyers and sellers today. And if you want the latest information for our area, let’s connect today.

​Marin county planners approved plans a solar-powered, 15,240-square-foot estate on a Tiburon ridgetop, also known as Bluff Point.

Owners spent more than nine years and over one million dollars on consultants and over one million dollars in property taxes on an almost fifteen-acre parcel to build a mansion home on Bluff Point off Paradise Drive.

The Planning Commission approved the project last summer but hesitated at the impact of a driveway on heritage trees.

Property owners agreed to every recommendation made by their arborist and shifted the driveway and made other concessions as neighbors demanded.  The proposed plan is a large house, has a large lot. It is only visible from the bay. It's an unusually large dwelling, but this is one of the few sites that can accommodate such a home.

The planning commission was "completely pleased" the applicant did precisely comply with all the request and requirements.

Property owners' willingness to abide by recommendations on arborist's study of 59 trees nearest the property line. Some neighbors feared that grading and other construction activity near their homes would harm the roots of trees planted in 1900 by John McLaren.

 McLaren's classic "garden of trees" arboretum on the property is a regional historical resource now protected by a conservation easement.

It has been years off negotiation to build one of the biggest homes in Marin County along with a guest house and caretaker's cottage on a Bluff Point lot overlooking San Francisco Bay.

Plans show that this Tiburon estate will be a solar-powered, super-insulated and airtight under the county's new "build it green" system, and constructed to meet commercial standards, tripling its useful life. Solar voltaic and thermal panel system with geothermal temperature controls will power the skylight operation sensors and related high-tech marvels. Plans include a greywater recycling system for flushing and irrigation and charging stations for electric vehicles.

Construction using natural, renewable and some recycled materials would involve removal of 2,900 cubic yards of soil from the ridgetop. The project includes widening Paradise Drive just north of the property's entrance gate to promote cyclist and pedestrian safety and grading the embankment to improve sight distance for motorists.

The site, once zoned for 15 homes, is currently zoned for five.

​Two real estate agents usually involve in most transactions, Listing Agent and Selling Agent. Listing Agent gets into a contract to sell your house at a commission about 5 to 6 percent. Listing Agency enters the property into MLS and offers Selling Agency portion of the commission you agreed with him/her, usually half of it about 2.5 to 3 percent. 

​All of a sudden you hired thousands of agents through your listing agent. They are now all working for you and competing with other agents to sell your home. Why would they do that? What is their motivation? You know the answer, it is nothing but money. If you are not using the MLS, you are not marketing your home effectively, PERIOD. You are not exposing your home to more buyers and investors. Buyers agents do not have any incentive to bring you their buyers. This fact alone is going to cost you more than what you intended to save.

​Another scenario is that you already have a buyer. A friend or a friend of another friend wants to buy your home. All you need is to do the paperwork, right? Sure, that is easy. Any Realtor or a lawyer would do that for you including me for a small fee without representing either side. 

​You are just missing the opportunity cost in this scenario especially in a hot market as we have now where irrational exuberance is rampant. I recently represented a buyer in an Oakland Hills home. We successfully bid high enough to buy this beautiful Eichler Home. Identical Eichler Model with same floor plan and same condition with same bay view on the same block came in the market while we were in the process of closing. To my and my buyers' surprise, it sold $200,000 higher than our purchase price. I am certain. It did not appraise for that price since there was absolutely no comparable sale at that price. 

​Now, think of it, $200,000 is not a small change. If that property was your and was not in MLS, I do not believe that it would have been sold with that much of a significant margin. As a matter a fact, you would have sold that home to your friend or a friend of a friend without knowing how much more you could have gotten for it. You sure demonstrate your loyalty to your buddies, but that loyalty came in at a cost;  substantial your financial loss.

​The other face of it some buyers think they can save more or buy a home much less than asking price if they do not have an agent represent them.  

​In my open houses, some buyers approach me telling me that they do not have an agent so that they can get a lower purchase price and think that they are in an advantageous position somehow. First of all, what they do not know is, most realtors do not as buyers represent themselves because of increased liability. Secondly, As a listing agent, I would rather work with a fellow real estate agent where they mitigate the risk of liability. Finally, I as a listing agent, I would not share my commission with the buyer as I am with another agent. So there is a myth that buyers think they will save by not being represented by an agent. They can also hire a lawyer to mitigate that risk for the listing agency, but again, it is unlikely, listing agency shares the entire commission with them. If they do, it would be a smaller amount which in reality benefits the seller not the buyer. 

Pay attention to these potential disadvantages before you make a commitment to sell your home yourself. Take a piece of paper and pencil and answer questions. 

Homeowners who are listing with Real Estate Agents are exposing their homes to a wider audience of potential buyers, I believe and have experienced that agents usually can obtain a higher sales price for your home, which will offset some or all of their commission.

You are adding additional commitment to show your home. How about the time you take away from your work, family, and other projects that matter to you. We can do whatever we put our minds into doing it but at what cost; Is it worthed? Time? Energy?, Lost Productivity? You answer those questions. 

How do you know who is coming in to see your home? Are they buyers? If so How do you make sure? Are you comfortable exposing your home to strangers you do not know? Realtors have bonafide buyers who are vetted through lenders, intention, and relationships

Do you know how to handle all the paperwork? Do you understand legally binding contracts?  Do you know what local disclosure ordinances are? Do you know what to disclose to mitigate your liability and potentially be sued for not properly disclosing material facts? How do you make sure your buyer is qualified to buy your home? Do you know how to position yourself to receive multiple offers? If you receive multiple offers, how do you choose the right one? Can you afford to carry two mortgages if you cannot sell within the time frame you intended to sell? 

Despite the potential disadvantages, a small number of homeowners saved a lot in real estate commissions by selling it themselves.  If you can afford to wait for a buyer and prepared to market your home efficiently and aren’t intimidated to do the work required and comfortable of doing it yourself, Go for it.  

​Here are some statistics

For Sale By Owner (FSBO) Statistics nationwide by NAR (National Association of Realtors)

8% of home sales in 2015 was by For Sale By Owners. Numbers are getting smaller than previous years.
The typical FSBO home sold for $185,000 compared to $240,000 for agent-assisted home sales.
FSBO methods used to market home:
41% did not actively market their property
33% used a yard sign
21% through relatives, friends or neighbors 
10% utilized online classifieds 
21% Open House
7% employed For-sale-by-owner websites
9% used social networking sites likeFacebook, Twitter, etc. 
13% used Multiple Listing Service (MLS), paid a commission to buyers' agent and a small fee to the listing agent. 
3% used print newspaper advertisement: 
2% utilized Direct mail, flyers, postcards, etc.
1% employed video

​In summary, You can still save money on Real Estate Commissions by either negotiating with your agent or seeking a realtor who is already offering the reduced fee, discounted listing fee type of business model. You still need to be careful and not choose an agent simply on fees otherwise you may end up with the mediocre skillset and mediocre service resulting in mediocre results. 

My 1% listing fee is a niche product where I provide superb service, fast sales and get top dollars for my clients; they just pay less. It is a business model I subscribe. There are more and more ous us subscribing to this type of business model; you may find them in your local market as well.

You receive double-digit multiple offers, and to your surprise, the purchase prices in those offers exceed way more than you initially thought your house is worth.  You picked one of the offers and popped a bottle of wine to celebrate successful sale with extra dollars you did not expect.

Now, you are waiting buyers close the escrow, packing up and planning moving out to your new home. Buyers completed the inspection and as a result requested several repairs. Then, your agent calls and tells you that the appraisal comes in lower than the purchase price offered. Immediately, you receive an addendum says "Purchase price to be $..............." to remove the appraisal contingency to move forward. 

Unfortunately, It is a different feeling than the day you accepted the offer, not a one that triggers a celebration. The deal might be falling apart. What will you do now? Before getting into the advice, I like to share my recent experience relating to the topic. ​

I represented a buyer recently on an Oakland Hills property, a beautiful Eichler and successfully won the bid where there were multiple offers by $200,000 over listing price. 

Buyers had the appraisal, loan and inspection contingencies in the accepted purchase contract. Upon completion of the physical inspection, we requested $15,000 credit toward the closing costs and repairs which is accepted. 

A couple of days later, the appraisal came in $25,000 lower than our original offer at $1,100,000. We requested the purchase price to be $1,075,000. The seller accepted our request again. 

Meantime an identical house with the similar condition and floor plan came on the market just five homes next to ours at the same listing price.  The seller of that home received and closed the escrow at $1,275,000 which is $200,000 higher than what my buyers purchased just weeks earlier. 

I firmly believe the appraisal on that house came in or around our purchase price because no other property would support the value within the time frame. Since it was closed, Buyers must have made up the difference or it was an all cash offer. 

I am very happy with the results since I have a very happy buyer. As a Listing agent, my approach would have been different for sure.

Provide the appraiser with equivalent sold houses

Make sure that your agent presents the appraiser with relevant like sold homes.  Your agent may know a pending comparable home sale.  You can search sources other than MLS for similar properties, such as public records, sold by owner homes and new construction.  Ideally, they have to be within six months or less.

Give a list of improvements and upgrades to the appraiser

Having a list of improvements clearly, makes it easy for appraiser while working on the report. You may also accompany each improvement with a photograph, before and after if you have them. 

Correct public records errors

Check your public records at the city offices for accuracy. Provide any corrections that are not reflected in the public records. Give any documentation verifying any correction including architectural prints or previous appraisal.
​

Present the appraiser all of the offers you received.

Buyers' willingness to pay the high price demonstrates the market demand which is an indication where prices will be going in that particular neighborhood. However, If the other offers are significantly less than the one you picked, DO NOT provide the offers.

What if my house appraises for less than the amount in the ratified contract with the buyer?

If the property appraises lower than what you had agreed to with the buyer, you can ask an appeal. If that is the case, buyers' lender orders to start the process. Appraisal Management company manages the appeal process. It will also be helpful if you have a written rebuttal with proper documentation to challenge the appraiser's opinion of the value. Your goal is to show appraiser why it is worth more.  Document the fact and figures in a logical and tactful manner. Refrain from emotions and descriptions like "light and bright," open floor plan"  in your argument.  There is no value in such descriptors other than emotional. Provide market report specific to your zip code or neighborhood that demonstrates a trend for higher prices. Correct obvious errors such as square footage. Use alternative comparables. 
​

What if rebuttal does not work?

Human nature dictates that people usually do not admit their mistakes or quickly change their minds and appraisers are no different. Appraisers are independent of the lender since Dodd-Frank legislation. The lender may order a second appraisal, or your buyer may go to another lender if they still want to work it out. I have seen many times a different appraisal from another lender's Appraisal Management Vendors or different appraiser. If the buyer is financing by using an FHA or VA loan, appraiser stays with the property, and it is harder to over come the challenge.

Experienced and knowledgable Real Estate Agent would help you navigate challenges like this​. 

Borrowers can only put a 10-percent down payment and additional 10% down payment comes from the financial firm (Unison Home Ownership Investors) which qualifies the homeowners for a larger mortgage, eliminates mortgage insurance as 20 percent down payment programs do.

In return for half of a down payment, Unison Home Ownership Investors will receive part of the gain or loss of a home’s value when the home is sold in the future or refinanced either with the payout or loss. Borrowers do not pay any interest on a down payment contribution from Unison. This program is a shared equity program that federal mortgage agency approved.

Since this mortgage is a 20 percent down payment, there is no private mortgage insurance (PMI). Freddie Mac handles these loans to the same underwriting criteria as mortgages that use a 20-percent down payment.

Borrowers can buyout Investors’ stake in their property after several years, or they can keep the equity share for up to 30 years. At that point, they would have to buy out Unison by refinancing or selling. Buyout rate is 35 percent of the gain or loss in the property's value.

Let's say you are purchasing a home for $500,000 with 10 % down payment and qualified for a $450,000 mortgage. With this program, you would increase your buying power for another $50,000 or more since you just eliminated mortgage insurance, or you would get a $400,000 mortgage loan with lower payments that include PMI elimination as well. Your interest rate on the mortgage is also lower since there is no more add on for 90% loan to value. 

Several lenders are offering this program. One of them is First Cal. This is a pilot program offered only by few lenders. What makes this program unique is that investor not only receives the equity gain but also is a partner for the same percentage of the loss in the event property values goes down.

If you are interested in this mortgage program, contact me for a list of lenders.